Migrant Tradies Must Build a Home Every 9 Days to Keep Up

Impact of Migration on Housing Prices in Australia

A recent article in The Guardian suggests that reducing migration could inadvertently lead to higher housing prices in Australia. Based on modelling from KPMG, the article claims that cutting back on migration could result in a 2.3% increase in house prices by 2035. This theory rests on the idea that fewer migrants would result in fewer construction workers, thereby decreasing housing supply more significantly than demand.

Flawed Assumptions About Construction Workers

The primary assumption in the article is questionable. The construction sector predominantly utilises subcontractors, who often find it expensive and complicated to bring in foreign workers. Larger construction firms, facing rising costs, are already struggling and approaching insolvency.

Moreover, overseas tradespeople encounter considerable barriers when trying to get their skills recognised in Australia. They may need to undertake costly bridging courses, making migration less attractive. Low wages and a high cost of living further complicate their situation, exposing them to possible exploitation.

Current Immigration Statistics

Data from 2024 indicate that only 2.5% of skilled temporary migrants were employed in home building jobs, despite 667,000 migrants arriving that year. Only 4,229 of these were tradespeople, casting doubt on their supposed impact on the housing market.

For perspective, if every new migrant tradie were to build an average of 39.4 houses annually, they would need to construct a new home every nine days to match current migration levels. This illustrates the unrealistic expectations outlined in the KPMG report.

Rents and Economic Implications

While immigration was paused during the COVID-19 pandemic, rents actually fell, providing a clearer picture of housing conditions than speculative claims. Additionally, a reduced labour force might encourage companies to focus on efficiency and innovation instead of inflationary pressures.

As population growth can lead to decreased tax revenue, the government may have to rethink its taxation strategies, potentially enhancing natural resource management. This underscores how simplistic economic models often fail to capture complex realities.

Final Thoughts on Migration and Housing

The ongoing debate about migration and housing in Australia highlights its complexity. Many Australians, around 68%, believe immigration levels should be managed carefully. Critics of high migration can sometimes face accusations of xenophobia, which stifles constructive dialogue on the subject.

It’s essential to critically evaluate the benefits and drawbacks of high migration. As Australia grapples with housing issues, understanding how immigration impacts the market is vital, especially for international job seekers and those contemplating PR or visa sponsorship opportunities.

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