Foreign Student Numbers in Australia Expected to Miss Target

Challenges Facing International Student Numbers in Australia

Australia has faced some hurdles in managing international student admissions. Recent analyses suggest that overseas enrolments might fall short of the government’s goal for 2025 by as much as 35,000 students.

Current Situations and Concerns

Bobby Abraham, a seasoned professional in international education, believes that even with an uptick in visa grants, the reality is that Australia will not reach its 2025 cap of 270,000 international students. Many are concerned that the influx of foreign students has led to housing shortages, influencing the government’s approach.

“Even if visa grants rise significantly, we’re still looking at a substantial shortfall,” Abraham noted on LinkedIn. He points out that this gap significantly contributes to financial issues, job losses, and reputational challenges within the education sector.

Abraham heads admissions and global engagement at Excelsia College, a private institution that recently gained university college status, and he serves on the board of Independent Higher Education Australia. His insights are based on the latest data from the Department of Home Affairs, reflecting student visa applications and grants up to May.

Sector-by-Sector Breakdown

Looking closer, universities and other higher education institutions are expected to achieve their target of 175,000 overseas enrolments. However, the vocational education and training (VET) sector is struggling to meet its cap of 95,000, attracting only slightly above half that number.

Interestingly, while English language course commencements are exempt from government caps, grants for language students have drastically fallen. Enrolments from Latin America, particularly Colombia, have seen a notable decline; for instance, the share of new language students from Colombia has plummeted from one-quarter to just one-twelfth.

Policy Impact on Enrolments

A recent government bill intended to cap international student numbers has stalled in the Senate. Despite this, concerns remain that visa processing delays may keep enrolment targets in check.

Abraham advises that without a significant policy shift, we might see more reputable English language and VET providers close their doors. In fact, several institutions, including Lonsdale Institute and Perth International College of English, have ceased operations recently.

Financial Concerns and Visa Fees

From July, fees for student visas rose by 25%, now costing around A$2,000 (about £971). Many international students are reluctant to pay such high fees for short courses or vocational training. This has led two university groups to call for a reduction in visa fees for courses lasting a year or less.

Immigration expert Abul Rizvi has observed that issues in the English language sector began not just with fee increases but with a surge in visa refusals, particularly for students from nations experiencing rapid growth. For instance, the rejection rate for language students applying from Colombia has skyrocketed from 4% two years ago to approximately 40% in 2024-25.

Rizvi explains that the English language training sector has a long history of fluctuating enrolments. This trend started in the 1980s when many students claimed asylum in Australia, making immigration authorities cautious ever since.

Looking Ahead

While ongoing discussions about policies, enrolment targets, and financial viability unfold, it’s important for international job seekers to stay informed. Understanding these dynamics can help you navigate Australia’s educational landscape and visa options effectively.

If you’re considering studying or working in Australia, keep an eye on updates regarding the visa system and student enrolments. This knowledge can shape your plans and open up new opportunities.

What do you think?

Have a question about this topic or your own plans to move to Australia or New Zealand? Scroll down and leave a comment. We’d love to hear from you.

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