Let’s Chat About Migration to Australia

The Current Landscape of Migration Measurement in Australia

Migration to Australia is a hot topic these days, and it’s crucial for anyone looking to move here for work. Recently, there’s been a buzz around how migration figures are calculated, with media outlets and organisations receiving feedback from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on this matter.

The ABS Clarification

An email from an ABS media officer claimed some interpretations of their migration data were misleading. Specifically, the officer mentioned that using monthly net permanent and long-term arrivals data as a measure of migration could be "inaccurate and misleading." This has raised eyebrows among many who rely on these figures to understand migration trends.

The ABS states that their data on net long-term and permanent arrivals—essentially, the number of people coming to stay long-term—can be volatile. To clarify, "net permanent arrivals" refers to people who intend to stay in Australia indefinitely, often on work or family visas.

Migration as an Indicator

Interestingly, the federal government’s Centre for Population stands by the idea that tracking border crossings is a useful early indicator of future migration flows. So, while the ABS might have reservations, there are organisations that see value in these statistics.

For anyone considering moving here, understanding these metrics can be very helpful. Whether you’re thinking about a 482 visa (Temporary Skill Shortage visa) or applying for permanent residency (PR), being aware of the trends in migration can better inform your decisions.

Understanding Arrival Trends

To get a better grasp of the situation, let’s look at the numbers. The net long-term and permanent arrivals for January and February 2024 accounted for over a third—36.2%—of the total arrivals for that entire year. This spike illustrates how starting fresh in the early months is appealing, particularly for international students, who have become a significant part of these figures.

The Importance of Seasonal Adjustments

Due to the seasonal nature of these arrivals, examining the data year-to-date or on a rolling annual basis is generally more insightful. For example, from January to June 2024, Australia welcomed 279,460 net long-term and permanent arrivals, marking the highest figure recorded since the mid-1970s.

On a rolling 12-month basis, there were 457,560 net arrivals, highlighting how busy Australia has been in welcoming newcomers. However, it’s essential to note that figures can fluctuate, as seen in a drop from January to February 2025. Still, the trend showed a rebound in net arrivals, which is worth keeping an eye on.

Net Arrivals vs. Net Overseas Migration

When comparing net long-term and permanent arrivals with net overseas migration, a clear connection emerges. While not a perfect match, increases in permanent arrivals often correspond with rises in overall migration numbers.

This relationship underscores why many experts look at net arrivals data as an early indicator of migration trends. Given the time lag in reporting—where net long-term arrivals data can be available sooner—the ABS figures provide a valuable perspective on whether migration is likely to increase or decrease in the coming months.

A Useful Tool for Job Seekers

For potential job seekers in Australia, understanding these metrics can help clarify your environment. If migration is on the rise, it suggests more opportunities for skilled jobs—especially for those applying for skilled migration pathways like the 189 visa (Skilled Independent Visa) or the 190 visa (Skilled Nominated Visa).

Staying informed about these trends will help you better navigate the job market and explore visa options that suit your skills and qualifications.

Conclusion

The conversation around migration measurement in Australia is ongoing, and with significant net arrivals, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about opportunities available here. For anyone considering a move, understanding these statistics can equip you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions about your future.

What do you think?

Have a question about this topic or your own plans to move to Australia or New Zealand? Scroll down and leave a comment. We’d love to hear from you.

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