Population Growth in Australia: Key Insights from Four Charts

Understanding Migration Trends in Australia

As borders reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia experienced an impressive surge in population growth, reaching levels not seen since the 1960s. In just one year, an additional 663,000 people arrived. This surge is often referred to as a migrant boom, which has been a hot topic thanks to the dramatic rise in immigration following the reopening of borders.

However, it’s essential to note that this growth follows a significant decline in migration rates during 2020 and 2021.

What Role Does Migration Play in Population Growth?

Population growth essentially consists of two elements: natural increase, which is the difference between births and deaths, and immigration.

The natural increase in Australia has typically been between 100,000 and 200,000 people annually over the past two decades. However, since 2022, this number has been declining due to falling birth rates and an increase in death rates. As a result, natural increase is contributing less to overall population growth, putting even more emphasis on migration as the main driver of population changes.

Crunching the Numbers: Net Overseas Migration

To understand how migration impacts population growth, we look at Net Overseas Migration (NOM). This figure, calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reflects the number of people who have arrived in Australia minus those who have departed. To be counted in NOM, a person must have lived in Australia for at least 12 months in the past 16 months, ensuring that we focus on people who are settling here, rather than just tourists.

Population Growth in Australia: Key Insights from Four Charts - Net Overseas Migration

NOM numbers have fluctuated significantly, especially during the pandemic, and the federal government usually provides estimates for the following years as part of its annual budget. However, these projections have often missed the mark since 2019 due to uncertainties brought by COVID-19.

For example, in the 2019-2020 budget, the Morrison government anticipated a NOM of 271,300 for the following year. Instead, when borders closed, it plummeted to -85,000. As conditions improve, the latest figures show a record NOM of 538,300, far exceeding previous expectations.

Why Migration Matters

The increased migration numbers have stirred political discussions, particularly as they contradict long-held beliefs about population control. While some claim that Australia has been flooded with migrants, it’s essential to consider the context – this spike came on the heels of a pandemic that had severely restricted immigration.

The recent surge in numbers reflects the reality of Australia’s evolving population landscape. The once-projected population growth was revised sharply due to the pandemic, yet 2024 estimates show a figure lower than previously expected.

Interpreting the Data

The population and NOM figures discussed come from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which is regarded as the most reliable. It’s vital to exercise caution when using other data sets, such as “overseas arrivals and departures”, when assessing migration trends. The Bureau has even warned that these figures can lead to misinterpretations because they count border crossings rather than actual migration.

For instance, a person who has lived in Australia for years on a temporary visa may be counted multiple times as a visitor whenever they travel, even though they have migrated only once.

Key Takeaway: The ongoing dialogue about migration is crucial for understanding the changes in Australia’s landscape, which in turn impact job opportunities and pathways for skilled migrants.

If you’re exploring job opportunities or potential visa sponsorships in Australia, understanding these migration trends can help you navigate your options.