Why the Media Misses the Mark on 2024-25 Migration
Understanding Australia’s Migration Trends
There’s been a lot of chatter lately about net migration figures in Australia, especially regarding predictions for the 2024-25 financial year. Some reports claim we will see net migration soar to 457,000, but let’s take a closer look at the facts.
What the Data Says
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has only provided estimates for the first half of 2024-25, indicating a net migration of around 154,800. In comparison, the net permanent and long-term (NPLT) number for that period was 178,100. Just because the prediction from some sources is high doesn’t mean we need to panic. Historical data shows that NPLT often doesn’t align closely with actual net migration.
To hit that sensational figure of 457,000 by the end of the year, net migration in the second half would need to exceed 300,000. However, past trends suggest that is highly unlikely based on current data.
Evaluating Net Movement
So, how do we gauge actual migration numbers? By looking at three main data sets:
- Overall net movements for the year
- Changes in temporary entrants and permanent migration
- Visa grants for key entry types
Overall Net Movements
When we look at the overall net movements — both short-term and long-term — there’s been a noticeable drop. This decreased from about 449,880 in 2023-24 to around 324,111 in 2024-25, which suggests the higher numbers reported may be misleading.
Interestingly, more Australian citizens are returning home compared to the previous year, possibly due to a strong job market. Similarly, an influx of New Zealand citizens is also expected, thanks in part to new pathways to Australian citizenship.
Temporary Entrants’ Impact
The final numbers for this migration year will also depend on the count of temporary entrants. From June 2024 to June 2025, there’s a projected increase of 94,364 temporary entrants, alongside a permanent migration program of 185,000 and a humanitarian program contributing another 20,000. This leads to a rough estimate of net migration of around 300,000.
Key Visa Data
The trends in key entry types play a significant role too. Let’s break down the main contributors:
Students
Offshore student visa grants have decreased, but onshore grants have seen a slight increase. This suggests students may not be leaving Australia as quickly as anticipated, indicating less of a drop in net migration from this group than originally thought.
Working Holiday Visas
The number of Working Holiday Maker and Work and Holiday visa grants has also seen an increase. From 85,716 in 2021-22 to 196,463 in 2024-25, this rise is significant. Importantly, many working holidaymakers decide to stay long-term, which contributes to net migration figures.
Skilled Temporary Visas
Offshore skilled temporary visa grants have remained steady since pandemic restrictions eased. Notably, the numberof onshore skilled temporary visas granted surged to over 70,000 in 2024-25. This increase likely reflects the demand for skilled workers in Australia’s recovering job market and indicates that more individuals are looking to secure their future here.
Temporary Graduates
The number of temporary graduates has also risen sharply. Despite some dropping to skilled or permanent visas, applications for Temporary Graduate visas remained high, exceeding pre-pandemic figures. This is helping to maintain a stable net migration rate as these graduates typically contribute to the workforce instead of leaving.
Conclusion
As we move through 2024-25, it’s crucial to remember that ongoing data from the ABS will provide clearer insights into actual migration trends. Early indicators show that net migration figures are unlikely to reach the sensational estimates some reports suggest. A more realistic assessment puts the numbers well below 400,000 but higher than the Treasury’s prediction of 335,000.
While the government has challenges ahead to meet pre-pandemic levels, the current situation is much more manageable than alarmist headlines make it seem. The reality is that Australia continues to attract skilled migrants, showing a robust demand for talent in various sectors.
What do you think?
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